Written by PPL Newsroom• October 1, 2026• 9:04 am• Nature & Wildlife

Ethiopia reports 56.8 billion seedlings planted, but survival data lags

The government says its Green Legacy drive has passed its 50-billion target, while researchers say long-term survival of the trees is still being established.

Ethiopia says it has planted 56.8 billion tree seedlings in eight years, passing the 50-billion target of its Green Legacy Initiative. The announcement was made in Addis Ababa on 10 September 2026. The harder question is how many of those trees are still standing and how well they are restoring land hit by flooding and drought.

The numbers, and what they mean

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched the programme in 2019 as a national response to land degradation, deforestation, biodiversity loss and damage to water resources. It began modestly. The first campaign aimed for four billion seedlings and reached about 4.7 billion. On 15 June 2026, the prime minister opened the latest planting season with a target of eight billion seedlings. He described it as a step towards a wider goal of 65 billion trees.

Government figures point to real change on the ground. Annual deforestation fell from 92,000 hectares in 2013 to 27,703 hectares in 2023, a drop of roughly 70 per cent. Forest cover rose from 15.5 to 23.6 per cent. A critical review of the programme reported soil erosion falling from 1.9 billion to 208 million tonnes a year, and more than 767,000 jobs created. The same review warned that significant implementation gaps persist.

The government’s explanation of the flood and drought link is simple. According to the state news agency ENA, restoring vegetation helps rainwater soak in, reduces soil erosion and improves soil moisture retention.

The survival question

Planting a seedling is not the same as growing a tree. Independent verification of long-term survival is still in progress, and outsiders cannot say how many of the claimed trees are alive. Researchers reviewing Ethiopian tree-planting schemes found that 10 of 15 with set targets achieved less than 50 per cent success. Studies in Asia suggest nearly half of reforestation trees do not survive five years.

There are encouraging local signs. WaterAid Ethiopia distributed about 55,000 indigenous seedlings in one district and reports an 85 per cent growth rate so far. The species mix also matters. Reportedly about 60 per cent of seedlings are agroforestry species such as fruit trees, coffee and fodder plants. That helps farm incomes but is not the same as restoring native forest. Officials have said they are shifting towards native trees. The technical committee chairman said this focus on indigenous seedlings is new compared with earlier years.

What this means for India

The sources reviewed here do not describe any Indian link, so the lessons are general. Ethiopia’s experience suggests that planting totals alone say little about restoration. Survival tracking, mapping of planting sites and a clear share of native species matter just as much. Ethiopia has georeferenced about 668,000 hectares of its restoration sites to improve monitoring. Indian afforestation programmes could ask similar questions of their own targets: where the trees stand, which species were planted and how many are alive after five years.

What happens next

The programme is now moving from counting seedlings to proving that they last. The national committee has said that over 2 million hectares of damaged land have been identified for restoration, supplied by roughly 116,000 nursery sites. The World Resources Institute has said the next phase must focus on ensuring seedlings mature into healthy, lasting forests through stronger policy, institutional, financial and technological support.

According to the Optimist Daily, a systematic study is now collecting survival data. Its findings will show whether Ethiopia’s headline number matches the forest that is actually growing.