Written by PPL Newsroom• October 9, 2026• 5:42 am• Climate & Environment

India’s 13% monsoon deficit brings drought declarations in several states

The national shortfall is smaller than in 1987 or 2002, yet drought has been declared in parts of several states. Reservoirs are also well below last year’s levels.

India’s southwest monsoon ended on 30 September with rainfall about 13 per cent below normal. That made 2026 the weakest monsoon in more than a decade, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The national figure hides sharper local distress. Several states have formally declared drought since late August after long dry spells, drying soils and crop losses.

What the numbers say

India received 87 per cent of its long-period average between June and September, which makes 2026 the fourth-lowest monsoon since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901. The long-period average is the typical seasonal rainfall, worked out from 50 years of data. In plain terms, the season delivered about 759 mm against a normal of 868.6 mm.

The season was uneven month by month. June was about 40 per cent short, July was slightly above normal, and August fell about 16 per cent short. The regions fared differently too. East and Northeast India recorded about 26 per cent less rain than normal, South Peninsular India 24 per cent less, and Northwest India 6 per cent less. Meghalaya, one of the wettest places on Earth, had a 59 per cent shortfall as of mid-September, with 10 of its 11 districts deficient.

Past droughts were worse on paper. Both 1987 and 2002 ended with rainfall 19 per cent below normal. Even so, drought conditions have been reported in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Rajasthan. Maharashtra has placed 265 talukas under the first stage of its drought assessment process, according to Down To Earth.

Why a “modest” deficit bites

An all-India average can look mild when rain is concentrated in a few spells or places. On 29 September, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said there was “no major crisis at the national level”, while acknowledging regional problems. Down To Earth’s analysis asks whether decades of water conservation work have built real resilience.

Storage figures show the pressure. According to Central Water Commission data cited by SANDRP, 178 major reservoirs held 132.734 billion cubic metres at the end of the monsoon. That is 71.84 per cent of live capacity and well below last year’s 166.856 billion cubic metres. Down To Earth’s report card adds that prolonged dry conditions have increased dependence on groundwater for irrigation, adding strain to reserves that were already stressed.

What this means for India

A national rainfall percentage is a poor guide to local water security. This year, states such as Karnataka, Maharashtra and Rajasthan face drought with a deficit smaller than in 1987 or 2002. District and taluka-level data, soil moisture and reservoir levels therefore matter for relief and planning. Reservoirs are holding less than last year, and farmers are leaning more on groundwater. Planners and village bodies can learn that conservation structures need rain to fill them, and that groundwater management matters as much as storage.

What happens next

Attention now turns to the rabi season and to water for drinking and irrigation through the dry months. The government has lowered its 2026–27 foodgrain production target, according to Rural Voice. More states are assessing whether parts of their territory meet the criteria for a formal drought declaration.

The IMD’s director general, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, noted that the country spent 77 days under the influence of low-pressure systems this year, against a normal of 57. Those systems brought rain to some areas that would otherwise have gone without. They did not prevent the pockets of severe shortfall.