Written by PPL Newsroom• October 1, 2026• 8:24 am• Climate & Environment

India’s night-time power gap hits 7.7 GW as coal stocks fall to three-year low

A weak monsoon has cut hydropower and pushed up coal burn. The government has now ordered captive plants to run flat out from 1 October.

India’s electricity shortfall has reached its highest level in about three years, even though coal plants are generating much more power than a year ago. On 9 September, the shortage during non-solar hours rose to 7,717 MW, while daytime demand of more than 267 GW was met. In response, the power ministry has ordered large captive coal plants to run at full capacity until the end of the year.

What the numbers show

Coal is carrying more of the load. Hydropower output was 12% lower than a year earlier in the first three weeks of September, while coal-fired generation was up 18% for the month. Demand has stayed close to summer levels. Peak demand reached 269 GW on 10 September, the highest recorded for that month and just short of the year’s peak of 270.82 GW in May.

The strain shows most after sunset, when solar output fades. One market report put the monthly deficit at 560 million kilowatt-hours, the highest since August 2023. That equals the electricity a very large number of homes would use in a day, and the figure comes from a market-news report rather than an official release.

Fuel stocks are thinning too. Crisil Intelligence found that coal inventories at thermal plants fell 42% year-on-year to 29 million tonnes in August, as coal-based generation rose 13%. According to Central Electricity Authority data, 74 coal stations held critical stocks on 19 September. That means less than 25% of the required level, or under three days of coal. By 24 September, 80 of 190 plants were below that threshold.

A logistics problem, not a coal shortage

Analysts say the issue is moving coal, not mining it. Between April and August, thermal plants’ coal use grew about 8% to 395 million tonnes, but rake loading rose only 5%. Prolonged rain in the eastern coal belt also disrupted mining and transport. Crisil Intelligence says the fall looks like a temporary logistics issue rather than structural supply stress. Coal India has allowed plants with supply agreements to lift extra coal by road as well as rail since 7 September.

Renewables are growing but cannot yet cover the evening gap. Renewable generation rose 20.7% year-on-year over the five months, yet coal-fired power remained critical for round-the-clock demand.

What this means for India

The episode shows how closely India’s power security still depends on coal and on the monsoon. India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years, according to Mining Weekly. Weaker hydropower pushed the grid towards thermal plants just as solar faded each evening. The emergency order draws on industrial plants in steel, cement and similar sectors. Evening storage, faster coal movement by rail and more flexible grid planning will matter as much as new generating capacity.

What happens next

The government has acted on the supply side. It ordered more than 100 captive coal plants of at least 50 MW to run at maximum capacity from 1 October to the end of the year, under emergency provisions of the Electricity Act. Companies must sell surplus electricity through exchanges. The ministry also extended the directive for Tata Power’s 4-gigawatt Gujarat plant to run at full capacity through December.

Crisil Intelligence expects the pressure to ease only gradually. It projects electricity demand, coal-based generation and coal dispatches to grow 6-7% year-on-year in the second half of the fiscal year. Rebuilding plant stocks towards the historical cover of 16-18 days will need a sustained rise in dispatches.